I mean, I think we all recognize that these are gambling sites trying to skirt gambling regulations, so all of their arguments are going to seem ridiculous. “We’re a prediction market, and individuals with specialized knowledge improve our accuracy.” “We allow people to hedge against adverse events, like Elon Musk tweeting over 300 times this week.” “These are financial contracts, not wagers.”

The interviews I’ve seen with “prediction market” CEOs, they’re openly begging for people to trade on confidential, privileged, or classified information, because that’s the source of their markets’ supposed predictive power.